Ziguana Week 6 Projections

Ziguana has introduced a new feature called “Matchup Breakdown” where the site projects the final score of each series in our league. These projections are updated on a daily basis.

Below are series previews with Monday’s Ziguana projections for each series. I’ll send out an update on the projections later this week as the stats begin rolling in.

Bacon at Mile 11 vs Hapamon

Bacon at Mile 11 is now the league’s only undefeated team after beating Hapamon 7-4-1 last week. They have the league’s best record at 41-16-3. Despite the loss, Hapamon is hovering around .500 at 24-28-8 and 10th in the league standings.

Clayton KershawPitching: Bacon has gone 19-9-2 on the mound, losing the ERA, WHIP and K/9 categories just once this season. Danny Salazar, Aaron Nola, and Vincent Velasquez lead the starting staff with a combined 13 quality starts. All three have WHIPs under 1.00 this season. Despite the presence of Clayton Kershaw, the league’s second-rated player, Hapamon is just 12-13-5 on the mound. They’ve lost the K/9 category in four of the first five weeks. Closer Steve Cishek has been a pleasant surprise and is the team’s second-rated player behind Kershaw.

Hitting: Bacon is 22-7-1 at the plate and they haven’t lost the RBI category yet this season. Bacon has lost the Runs, OPS, and Strikeouts categories just once. Third baseman Nolan Arenado is the leagues third-rated player, first baseman Anthony Rizzo is fifth and the surprising Aledmys Diaz has a 1.113 OPS through his first 29 games. Hapamon would appear overmatched, going 12-15-3 at the plate this season. The team hasn’t won the Plate Appearances category and has won the Runs category just once. Outfielders Christian Yelich and Gerardo Parra are the team’s highest-rated hitters.

Ziguana Projected Outcome: Bacon at Mile 11 has an 86.8 percent chance of winning this series compared to a 6.5 percent chance for Hapamon. There is a 6.7 percent chance of a tie. The predicted final score is a 8-4 victory for Bacon at Mile 11.

Home Run 101 vs The Bulls

Home Run 101 earned its first series victory over the season with a 7-5 win over the Bulls last week. They’ve dug an early hole with an 18-40-2 record, but there is plenty of time to make a run. The Bulls are the only team in the league without a series win. After tying their first two series, they’ve lost three straight and are 23-33-4 and 13th in the league standings.


Pitching
: Through the first three weeks of the season, Home Run 101’s pitching staff earned just one pitching category victory. It was a little better in Week 4, when they won ERA, WHIP, and K/9, but they are now 5-25-0 and haven’t had a category win in Innings Pitched or Quality Starts. Johnny Cueto is the team’s lone starter ranked in the league’s Top 150 players. The Bulls are 13-16-1 on the mound. The claimed five of the six pitching categories against Home Run 101 when they met last week. Stephen Strasburg, Drew Smyly and Kenta Maeda are the strength of the rotation.

Hitting: Home Run 101 swept the Bulls at the plate last week, their best performance since winning three categories against Bacon at Mile 11 to open the season. They are 13-15-2 at the plate. Jose Altuve is the league’s top-rated player and has 12 net stolen bases. Home Run 101 has lost the category just once this year. The Bulls are 10-17-3 at the plate and are still looking to win the Net Stolen Bases and Plate Appearances categories for the first time this season. Second baseman Rougned Odor is the team’s top-rated player, ranking 10th in the league.

Ziguana Projected Outcome: Home Run 101 is a slight favorite in this series. Ziguana projects a 54.9 percent chance of victory for Bailey’s team. Carolyn Green and the Bulls have a 28 percent chance to win the series while there is a 17.1 percent chance these two teams tie. The predicted final score is a 6-6 tie.

High Cheese vs Let’s Play 2

High Cheese fell out of the ranks of the undefeated in Week 5 with a 7-4-1 series loss to Let’s Play 2. As a result, High Cheese fell to fourth in the overall standings with a 34-23-3 record. Let’s Play 2 has just one series loss over the past month and is gaining ground in the early-season race for the final eight. They are ninth overall with a 27-31-2 record.

Pitching: After sweeping the pitching categories against Home Run 101 and Warning Track Power in Weeks 2-3, High Cheese has built a 22-6-2 record on the mound. High Cheese hasn’t lost the Quality Starts category and has just one loss in Innings Pitched, ERA, WHIP, and Net Saves/Holds. Jon Lester is the team’s highest rated player, earning five quality starts in six attempts. Let’s Play 2 hasn’t won the Net Saves/Holds category this season and has just one win in Quality Starts. They are 8-21-1 overall. The team needs Andrew Cashner and Trevor Bauer to turn their seasons around.

Trevor StoryHitting: As good as High Cheese has been on the mound, they’ve struggled at the plate. Twice this season they’ve posted just one category victory at the plate in a series. They are 12-17-1 overall. Shortstop Trevor Story is the leading hitter for High Cheese, driving in 27 runs in his first 31 games. Let’s Play 2 is 19-10-1 at the plate, including a sweep against Stadium Mustard in Week 3. They have yet to lose the Net Stolen Bases category and have lost Runs and Plate Appearances just once. Outfielders Dexter Fowler and Mookie Betts are the top-rated players on the team.

Ziguana Projected Outcome: Ziguana is predicting High Cheese has a 46.4 percent chance to win this series while Let’s Play 2 is the underdog at 34.5 percent. There is a 19.1 percent chance these teams tie. The predicted final score is a 6-6 tie.

JetSetters vs Los Coches Bomba

The JetSetters couldn’t sustain their Week 4 momentum after defeating the Bulls. They lost 7-4-1 to Los Coches Bomba in Week 5, their fourth series loss this season. The JetSetters are 21-34-5 and 14th in the overall standings. Bomba has alternated wins and losses each week and sit fifth in the overall standings at 32-24-4.

Pitching: The JetSetters won just one pitching category in Week 1 against High Cheese and last week against Los Coches Bomba. They are 11-14-5 overall and have just one win in the ERA category. Starter Steven Wright is the team’s top-rated pitcher. He’s 6-for-6 in quality starts in 2016. Los Coches Bomba has been a juggernaut on the mound, going 19-10-1 and that includes a Week 4 debacle against the Mirrors that saw Bomba fail to win a pitching category. Noah Syndergaard is the staff ace while David Robertson and Fernando Rodney are the top closers.

Hitting: The JettSetters are 10-20-0 at the plate and have yet to win the Strikeouts or OPS categories in 2016. They earned just one category win against Hapamon in Week 2 and Bacon at Mile 11 in Week 3. Outfielder Starling Marte is the team’s top-rated player, ranking 23rd in the league. Veteran second baseman Robinson Cano is the top-rated player for Los Coches Bomba, ranking sixth overall in the league. They started the season by winning just two hitting categories over the first two weeks but they are now 13-14-3.

Ziguana Projected Outcome: Los Coches Bomba has a 56.3 percent chance to win this series while the JetSetters are the underdog at 28 percent. There is a 15.7 percent chance this series ends tied. The predicted final score is Los Coches Bomba 7-5.

Buster Hugs for Land Shark

With last week’s 7-4-1 victory over Buster Hugs, Land Shark has three straight quality wins and four victories in the first five weeks. They are 30-28-2 and quietly becoming a playoff-caliber team. Buster Hugs is going in the opposite direction. They’ve lost three of their last four series and are now 28-28-4 and eighth in the overall standings.

Pitching: Buster Hugs is 15-13-2 on the mound but have just one category win in Net Saves/Holds. It was the only pitching category they lost against the Eephus Monkeys in Week 1 and Home Run 101 in Week 3. Surprisingly, relievers Kenley Jansen and Hector Rondon are the team’s top-rated pitchers and both rank in the Top 50. Land Shark is 14-15-1 on the mound but have lost the WHIP category just once this season. The problem has been Innings Pitched, a category they’ve won only once. Despite making just three starts, Kevin Gausman is the team’s top-rated pitcher.

David OrtizHitting: Buster Hugs is 13-15-2 at the plate but have two series where they haven’t won a hitting category and two others where they’ve won five. It’s been all or nothing. Veteran slugger David Ortiz is the team’s top-rated player, ranking 10th overall. Land Shark won five of the six hitting categories last week against Buster Hugs and is 16-13-1 overall. They’ve lost the Net Stolen Bases category just once in 2016. Veteran third baseman Adrian Beltre and young shortstop Francisco Lindor are the team’s top-rated players.

Ziguana Projected Outcome: Land Shark opens as the early favorite with a 49.6 percent chance of victory. Buster Hugs has a 31.7 percent chance to win the series. There is an 18.7 percent chance this series ends tied. The predicted final score is a 6-6 tie.

Stadium Mustard vs Eephus Monkeys

After losing three straight series to open the season, Stadium Mustard has won its last two, including last week’s 7-4-1 victory over the Monkeys. Stadium Mustard is 25-32-3 and 12th on the league ladder. The Monkeys remain mired in the league cellar with a 15-41-4 record and have yet to earn a series victory.

Pitching: Stadium Mustard lost just one pitching category to the Monkeys last week and are 7-4-1 over the past two weeks. Relievers Wade Davis and A.J. Ramos are the team’s top-rated players and have helped Stadium Mustard to a 13-15-2 record on the mound. The Monkeys have just two pitching category victories over the past three weeks. They are 6-20-4 overall and still looking for their first category victory in Innings Pitched and K/9. Marco Estrada and Carlos Martinez are the only pitchers on the team ranked in the league’s Top 100.

Hitting: Stadium Mustard has struggled to find consistency at the plate. They won just one hitting category over a two week period in Weeks 2-3. They are now 12-17-1 overall. Third baseman Kyle Seager is the team’s top-rated hitter but he ranks 109th overall. The Monkeys are 9-21-0 at the plate and won just a single hitting category in each of their first three weeks. They are looking for their first category wins this season in Strikeouts and OPS. Young shortstop Xander Bogaerts is the team’s top-rated player, ranking 12th in the league.

Ziguana Projected Outcome: The Eephus Monkeys open as a huge favorite in this series. They have a 78.6 percent chance of winning according to Ziguana. Stadium Mustard has an 11 percent chance of victory while there is a 10.4 percent chance the series ends in a tie. The predicted final score is 8-4 Eephus Monkeys.

A-Rod’s Mirrors vs. Marin Menehunes

The Mirrors have won three of their past four series to improve to 31-27-2. They are sixth on the league ladder. The team’s 8-4 series win over the Menehunes last week was the highlight of the early season for the Mirrors. It was the first series loss this season for the Menehunes and dropped them to 37-20-3. They are now third in the standings.

Pitching: The Mirrors are 19-10-1 on the mound and have lost just one pitching category combined in their last two series. They haven’t lost the K/9 category this season and have lost Innings Pitched just once. Veteran Rich Hill is the team’s top-rated pitcher, ranking 54th overall. Despite winning just one pitching category last week, the Menehunes are 17-11-2 on the mound this season. They didn’t lose a pitching category against Land Shark in Week 2 and Buster Hugs in Week 4. Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann have emerged as the team’s leaders on the mound.

Hitting: Despite having two of the league’s top-rated hitters in Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, the Mirrors are just 12-17-1 at the plate. They’ve won the Runs and Net Stolen Bases categories just once and earned just one hitting category victory against both the Land Sharks in Week 3 and Los Coches Bomba in Week 4. The Menehunes are 20-9-1 at the plate and lost just three hitting categories over the first three weeks of the season. Veteran middle infielders Daniel Murphy and Ian Kinsler are the team’s top-rated players followed by Yoenis Cespedes and Todd Frazier.

Ziguana Projected Outcome: The Mirrors open as a slight favorite with a 51.6 percent chance for victory. The Menehunes are the underdog at 32.8 percent. There is a 15.6 percent chance this series ends tied. The predicted final score is a 6-6 tie.

Lower Haighters vs Warning Track Power

The Lower Haighters are 40-17-3 and ranked second overall. They’ve lost just one series this season. Warning Track Power has lost four of its first five series and are 28-32-0.

Pitching: The Lower Haighters are 19-10-1 on the mound including a sweep of the pitching categories against the Eephus Monkeys in Week 3. They haven’t lost the Net Saves/Holds category this season. Jake Arrieta is the team’s top-rated player and he ranks sixth overall. Warning Track Power is 13-17-0 on the mound but have won just four pitching categories over the last three weeks. They’ve lost Innings Pitched just once but they’ve won ERA and WHIP just once. Chris Sale ranks fifth overall in the league and is WTP’s top-rated player.

Hitting: After winning five of the six hitting categories last week against Warning Track Power, the Lower Haighters are now 21-7-2 at the plate. They haven’t lost the Strikeout or Runs categories this season. Veteran outfielder Ryan Braun is the team’s offensive leader, ranked 16th overall. Warning Track Power is 15-15-0 and have two series where they won just one offensive category and two where they’ve won five of six. Third basemen Josh Donaldson and Nick Castellanos are WTP’s top-rated hitters.

Ziguana Projected Outcome: This series is a dead heat. The Lower Haighters open a very slight favorite with a 44.8 percent chance of victory while Warning Track Power is 37.3 percent. There is a 17.9 percent chance this series ends tied.

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